POLITICO
Now the Labour civil war really begins
Now the Labour civil war really begins The leadership campaign of Britain’s Andy Burnham will now finally burst into the open — and Keir Starmer has a chilly reception awaiting the new MP By DAN BLOOMin ASHTON-IN-MAKERFIELD, England Andy Burnham makes a speech to supporters after winning the Makerfield by-election on June 19, 2026. | Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images Andy Burnham spent the last month running a hopey-changey campaign from a small town social club to become an MP. His allies have been plotting frenetically behind the scenes to launch the campaign for No. 10 that now begins in Westminster. The former veteran of the Westminster machine — who left for the North in the 2010s — will return to work in London by Monday as the MP for the constituency of Makerfield, in northwest England. The sitting mayor of Greater Manchester won 55 percent of the vote in the parliamentary seat to 35 percent for Nigel Farage’s right-wing party Reform UK. That makes him eligible to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer — putting the battle for Britain’s leadership in the hands of just a few hundred thousand Labour and trade union members. The pivot will mark a shift for Burnham, who kept his campaign message relentlessly positive, rationing interviews and avoiding most tricky questions, like: When will he challenge? Who’ll run his team? And what exactly is his plan for Britain? He didn’t say. Many of his allies can’t even agree. Starmer, who has pledged to fight for the job he won in a landslide general election less than two years ago, and his allies will exploit those questions to the fullest. The two men are expected to speak as soon as this weekend after a month-long campaign in which the pair didn’t hold a single phone call — despite the official Labour mandate to all sitting members of parliament to help Burnham win. Burnham, who will be sworn in on Monday, is expected to try to persuade Starmer to step aside, though allies say he won’t launch a formal leadership challenge in the first 72 hours after today’s by-election victory. In preparation for the expected contest, however, he has been devoting more time in recent weeks to work up national policy. There are 100-day plans, though they’re still embryonic. Current Cabinet ministers, nominally loyal to Starmer, have been lining up for phone calls with Burnham. And yet Starmer’s allies say his resolve to fight for his job has hardened in recent weeks; they say the PM even believes he can beat Burnham, the overwhelming favorite, in a vote of the party’s grassroots members. Burnham isn’t alone in his ambition to topple his party chief, who has been weakened by a poor Labour performance in recent local elections as well as a cascade of embarrassments stemming from his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a longtime friend of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as the U.K. ambassador to Washington. Other rivals include Wes Streeting, a leading light from Labour’s centrist wing who resigned last month from his position as health secretary. Wes Streeting, one of Burnham’s leadership rivals, reveals his “economic blueprint for Britain” and talks about his vision for “progressive capitalism” in a London speech on June 16. | Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images Allies of both Burnham and Streeting believe some Cabinet ministers could resign next week to pile pressure on Starmer to set a timetable for his exit. If Starmer resists, Burnham or Streeting are expected to launch a formal challenge. Streeting insists he has the 80 MP backers he needs under party rules, despite Starmer’s belief that he is bluffing — and despite Streeting continuing to contact ministers urging them to resign, back him or both. “None of us know where we’re going to end up by next week,” one Cabinet minister, granted anonymity to speak frankly like other figures quoted in this piece, told POLITICO in recent days. “I’m so tired of the rollercoaster,” added one Starmer-allied official in London. Asked about plans for Friday, another said: “I will be crying and doing my CV.” With Reform leading national opinion polls, all three main contenders for Labour’s crown — Starmer, Burnham and Streeting — have privately or publicly ruled out a general election, which would risk Labour’s governing majority, before the next deadline in 2029. That leaves the party facing civil war instead, as it strives to answer the most urgent question facing them all: Who should lead Labour’s coming battle against Farage and Reform UK for Britain’s future? POLITICO spoke to more than two dozen serving politicians and officials allied to Burnham, Starmer and Streeting for the inside story of how Britain’s most consequential by-election in decades unfolded. It is a story of big personalities playing for the highest stakes, amid bitter infighting — which will likely only intensify in the days and weeks to come. First question: When to move? For Burnham, one pressing logistical question is about timing: When should he aim to get to Downing Street? Burnham privately wants a transition this September, two allies with knowledge of his thinking told POLITICO. That would give him more time before taking on the leadership to work up policies and a staffing plan, while still allowing him to give the leader’s speech to Labour’s party conference on Sept. 29. It all depends on how things play out in the coming days. If there is a full leadership contest it is likely to take around two months. The two allies quoted above confirmed that Burnham would want such a contest to begin by early July at the latest, before MPs — whose nominations comprise a brief first round — leave for their summer break on July 16. Streeting has also said a contest should move quickly. If Starmer agrees to step aside, however, and Streeting’s 80 MP backers do not materialize, Burnham could be handed the job of leader unopposed. Such a coronation is the preferred scenario for many in Burnham’s team. A third ally with knowledge of his thinking said: “It is in everyone’s interests to avoid a contest. They get bloody and horrible and you get dragged in policy directions you don’t want to do. They are bad enough in opposition, but in government we’re not totally sure that we would recover from it. We think the markets would have a hissy fit.” Keir Starmer, who has remained defiant in the face of his leadership woes, with U.S. President Donald Trump at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains on June 16, 2026. | Isabel Infantes/POOL/AFP via Getty Images Some key allies do not want Burnham to get the job too fast, citing as a warning the example of former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak, who took over with just a few days’ notice in 2022. They hope that, if there is no contest, Starmer agrees to a transition period lasting until September. “They want Starmer to go out [not] in a bloodbath but with dignity,” a fifth ally of Burnham said. One of the two initial allies quoted above said similar: “This is about giving Keir a dignified way out — if he wants.” But a September handover would also compress Burnham’s time to prep before a difficult budget in the fall. Three people with knowledge of the campaign said Josh Simons, the former MP who vacated his Makerfield seat for Burnham and is working on policy for him, has pushed Burnham to move faster. Over to you, Cabinet In No. 10, meanwhile, Starmer has dug in, suggesting Burnham could get a big role in his government, which the Burnham camp rejected. Burnham’s allies hope that Cabinet ministers will change the PM’s mind by resigning, telling him early next week the game is up. Already, Starmer has lost Streeting and, just last week, his Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns. The Cabinet minister both the Burnham and Starmer sides believe is most likely to go next is Ed Miliband, the left-leaning energy secretary. Miliband spoke regularly to Burnham in one-to-one phone calls about policy throughout the campaign. “They’re very tight,” said one Burnham backer. Another joked that when Miliband calls, they “can never get him off the fucking phone,” while yet another said: “[Ed] is old school. He absolutely loves picking up the phone for a chat.” Some allies of Starmer believe Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could also resign. A politician from Labour’s socially-conservative right flank, she privately urged Starmer to set an exit timetable in May, after dire local election results triggered moves to oust him. She has also spoken to Burnham during the campaign, said one person with knowledge of the conversations, though her allies insist the two politicians did not speak either this week or last week. Burnham’s team have discussed both Miliband and Mahmood as his potential chancellor, the second-biggest job in Westminster — and prominent aides to Burnham have pushed Mahmood, believing her politics would be more likely to keep the bond markets stable. One Starmer-aligned official said of the two ministers: “They’re both obviously working with Burnham and are going to pick their moment to resign or jump ship.” Miliband and Mahmood’s spokespeople both insisted Thursday before the Makerfield result that they were not preparing to quit. A spokesperson for Miliband said: “Ed has no plans to resign.” A spokesperson for Mahmood said: “She’s entirely focused on the job as home secretary and has no plans to give it up.” Rebels hoping for resignations have been burned before. Streeting privately conveyed his disappointment that more ministerial colleagues did not walk out of government with him in May, according to two people with knowledge of the conversations. The sixth ally of Burnham quoted above said: “If we get to the middle of next week, colleagues will have to decide whether they are spectators or actors in shaping history.” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who some Starmer allies believe could also resign, arrives at Downing Street for the weekly cabinet meeting, on June 9, 2026. | Alishia Abodunde/Getty Images Some of Starmer’s closest allies urged him last week to move first and sack disloyal ministers in the days before the by-election, according to three people familiar with the discussions. One of the three added: “Various people have suggested that there should be a reshuffle to get rid of people who would leave on Friday anyway.” Starmer did not heed the advice — it would have been risky with his position so weak — but paranoia gripped some ministers. Even as Burnham smiled through the final two days, one senior ministerial aide privately worried that Starmer could carry out a last-ditch reshuffle as a preemptive strike against his internal critics. Others are looking further ahead. Allies of Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, let it be known this week that she was concerned about the need for continuity in diplomatic relations given that Britain has had nine foreign secretaries in a decade. Cooper has been talking directly to Burnham about foreign affairs, said a person with knowledge of the conversation. Carns, an Afghanistan war veteran who has made no secret of his own leadership ambitions, was also seen at Burnham’s campaign HQ this week after quitting in protest at inadequate funding for defense. One person with knowledge of the encounter said Carns seemed “extremely pally” with Burnham. Even Streeting made the pilgrimage to Makerfield in recent days. A person familiar with conversations said at least one Streeting ally was pushing for Burnham to keep him in the loop on any talks with Starmer, so he could help coordinate a handover of power. While all this unfolded, Starmer was being advised by an old pal: Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s main 2024 election strategist who resigned as No. 10 chief of staff in February over his role in Mandelson’s appointment. McSweeney — whose mere name invites a caustic response from some in Labour — sent Starmer an email directly with his thoughts about a week before polling day, a person familiar with the matter said, and he has argued the PM needs to have authority over his team. Allies of Starmer interpreted this as cutting people loose if they are not loyal enough. This person added that McSweeney has also been speaking to Communities Secretary Steve Reed, an old friend. McSweeney, however, has insisted to allies that he and Starmer have only spoken about five times since his exit in February. He has said privately that he will not work on Starmer’s leadership campaign if it takes place. How Andy Burnham did it There are so many ways everything could have gone differently. After months of behind-the-scenes griping about Starmer, Labour’s coup finally got going properly after the May local elections. The party lost seats to the left-wing Greens and right-wing Reform across Britain, and 96 MPs called on Starmer publicly to go. Streeting could have blocked Burnham — who tried in February to run for a parliamentary seat but was stopped by Starmer loyalists — by triggering a contest early. One person who spoke to Streeting privately the week after the local elections said he had been determined to stand imminently. But when he quit the Cabinet the next day, no challenge came. Starmer’s former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney speaks on a panel at the GLOBSEC forum in Prague on May 22, 2026. | GLOBSEC via Getty Images Starmer’s allies insist that Streeting did not have the 80 MP backers he needed to trigger a challenge. But a close Streeting ally told POLITICO his team became aware — two days before Streeting quit the Cabinet — that Burnham had secured a seat to run in. Streeting has since said it would’ve been “foul play” to cut Burnham out of the race by launching too early. Which seat Burnham had was a vexed question. Burnham’s allies had planned for Labour MP Afzal Khan to vacate the more winnable Manchester Rusholme constituency for a by-election, two allies of the Greater Manchester mayor said. But the news leaked to Westminster’s frenzied press pack, upon which Khan denied he would quit. One of the two said: “That was rock solid, and then all of a sudden it wasn’t rock solid, and we had to find another one … it was really touch and go.” So Burnham’s camp alighted on Makerfield, the Brexit-backing constituency held by Simons that had elected a near clean sweep of Reform UK councillors the week before. Simons had been talking to Burnham for a year, but the final stages moved fast. On May 14 at 5.14 p.m. Simons said he would resign, sparking a frenzy of rumors — consistently denied — that he had been promised a role in Burnham’s No. 10. Every micro-detail was studied for clues. The media seized on a sighting of Burnham that week at London’s Euston Station — the arrival point for travelers from Manchester. One person with knowledge of Burnham’s train ride said he was, in fact, just visiting his son. The die, however, was cast. Burnham’s path to power would take him through the former mining communities of Makerfield, if he could walk it. But Burnham wasn’t always the front-runner to challenge Starmer from Labour’s so-called “soft left” flank. Miatta Fahnbulleh, the former think tanker who resigned as a local government minister over Starmer’s leadership last month, had approached all three potential contenders — Burnham, the former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, and Miliband. “The broad agreement was one of them would emerge and it was genuinely uncertain who that was going to be,” the first Burnham ally quoted in this article said. Rayner, the straight-talking, working-class power player who resigned as Starmer’s deputy over a tax scandal last year, had been making speeches to pave her way back. But too many left-leaning MPs remained uneasy at the prospect of her return. So two influential MPs on the soft left took control of Labour’s fate. Immediately after the May elections, Louise Haigh, a former Cabinet minister who Starmer forced to resign over an old criminal conviction, and Anneliese Midgley, a Liverpool MP close to the trade unions, started having daily 8 a.m. WhatsApp calls with Burnham and his closest aide Kevin Lee. They would last around 45 minutes and involved discussions of strategy and policy for government, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. While still close-knit, this was a far cry from many of Burnham’s days as mayor, when he would phone Lee and download thoughts he had accumulated over his morning jog. As the by-election got under way, arrangements became more formalized — a bit. The core by-election team began meeting early at the Stubshaw Cross Community and Sports Club, Burnham’s campaign HQ, after which Haigh, Midgley and Grace Pritchard — an adviser to Miliband who was loaned out to run Burnham’s communications operation — would travel to Burnham’s house to meet him at around 9.45 a.m. after his jog. They would all sit in his garden with Lee and set up the day in a meeting often lasting more than an hour. Prominent Labour MP and Burnham supporter Louise Haigh leaves Downing St during her time as transport secretary in November 2024. | Leon Neal/Getty Images A campaign figure said Burnham was so impressed with Pritchard that he has now tapped her up to become his head of communications and official spokesperson, moving over from Miliband’s team permanently. It is not yet clear what position would be in store for Lee, Burnham’s one-man Praetorian guard and a loyal adviser to him for the past 16 years. Two allies of Lee suggested he would play a key role but be unlikely to want the job of chief of staff in Burnham’s No. 10. Secretive meetings on policy Huge questions now loom over what a Burnham premiership would look like. As a candidate, he mostly avoided talking about a national policy platform — apart from carefully-selected interventions, such as saying welfare spending should fall to fund defense and Labour should stick to its rules that limit government borrowing. In recent weeks, however, the amount of time he has privately devoted to talking about a national platform has increased. Aides put in “quite big scheduled time to make sure he’s got the proper headspace,” said a seventh ally of Burnham. “It’s only really been possible in the latter half of the by-election.” Burnham’s team has privately ruled out an early general election and wants to draw up a “three-year plan,” two of his close allies said. But aides are concerned about how radical he can be — and if he strays too far from Labour’s 2024 manifesto, opponents will likely call for an election on the basis he has no mandate with the public. His backers are still working on a plan for his first 100 days in No. 10, including potential action to reform social care. But the sixth ally quoted above said “the details and scheduling of it are a live process” — and the content would all depend on when he began as prime minister. “You’ll see a series of momentum-building announcements,” this person said. “And then you will build towards a series of big interventions on some other really tough stuff.” Aides have been looking at what they could do to reform social care but are still working out what primary or secondary legislation they would need. Burnham has said publicly that he wants social care to be provided on NHS terms, free at the point of use. Much of the rest is fuzzy. Burnham unveiled a 10-point plan to reform Westminster in his 2024 book Head North, but aides say parts of it — including introducing a written constitution like the one in the U.S. — would not be imminent priorities. His book also called for the abolition of the whipping system that’s used to enforce discipline in parliamentary votes. One ally suggested Burnham could instead reform it so that MPs could vote according to the needs of their area. Burnham is, however, intent on changing the U.K.’s first-past-the-post general election voting system — which disadvantages smaller parties — to proportional representation. Three allies said he intends to put a commitment to introducing proportional representation in Labour’s 2029 manifesto, which would radically transform the makeup of parliament and the operation of British democracy. Burnham indicated to The Observer last month that he would introduce it without holding a referendum. One argument making the rounds in his team is that if progressive parties pledging proportional representation won more than half of the popular vote in 2029, Burnham would be able to claim a post-hoc mandate for the reform. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, the Cabinet minister both Burnham and Starmer sides believe is most likely to go next, at the State Opening of Parliament on May 13, 2026. | Toby Melville/WPA Pool/Getty Images Burnham is also working on plans to abolish the unelected House of Lords, replacing it with an elected Senate of Nations and Regions. There is still debate within his team over how quickly this can happen, however. Some allies have suggested it could be done before 2029, and the first Senate could be elected then. Others say that would not be feasible. Much of the policy work has been led by Fahnbulleh, who has been collating ideas from across Labour MPs, think tanks, trade unions and campaign groups, and feeding them into the rest of Burnham’s team. Also working on policy is Simons, who hails from a more right-wing tradition than Fahnbulleh. “Josh and Miatta are like chalk and cheese,” said one ally of Starmer. Those around Burnham fire back that diversity of thought is a good thing — unlike what they view as the factional approach taken under Starmer. Already, the competition is fierce from groups who all want Burnham’s ear. One is Mainstream, the left-wing campaign group that backed him early. It is planning to launch a pamphlet running to more than 10,000 words early next week about a productive state. It will also flesh out the idea of “Manchesterism,” which Burnham has painted as a strategy based on more muscular public involvement in infrastructure — but which involved private investment too. A key influence on Burnham’s thinking around growth as mayor was John Wrathmell, a senior civil servant at Burnham’s Greater Manchester Combined Authority. The second Burnham ally quoted above added: “That’s where Manchesterism came from.” Burnham has also been influenced by the economist Jim O’Neill, who has worked on the north of England and is now advising him on economic policy, and the left-leaning Mat Lawrence of the Common Wealth think tank. But scaling up policy for a new national-level candidate is tricky. The first Burnham ally quoted above said: “Andy has great instincts [but] I think there is an issue about what’s the structure around him. You never quite know who’s been, you know, actually designated to do stuff and who isn’t. “It’s been him and Kevin [Lee], a sort of lone gun who turns up with a bottle of water in his hand and notes scribbled on the back of a pad. And everything is being forensically examined now.” Another person who has worked with Burnham added: “Andy’s policy setup does seem a bit Heath Robinson” — a reference to the artist who drew overwrought and fanciful machines. This has led to blunders. For Labour MPs the worst of these was Burnham suggesting he might pay compensation to the so-called “Waspi women,” a large group of 1950s-born women who say they lost out when the state pension age rose, only to U-turn rapidly. One MP allied to Burnham said he had been reflecting what many MPs on the left believed in 2016 — but the debate has moved on since he left Westminster. This person added: “He’s really tired. It’s excruciatingly hard work, hence some slips and mis-steps.” Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy is interviewed at the Makerfield by-election declaration at The Edge in Wigan on June 19, 2026. Ryan Jenkinson/Getty Images Stay positive — or else During the Makerfield campaign many of these machinations stayed hidden. While Labour’s one-word slogan in 2024 was “change,” Andy Burnham’s was “hope.” The drive to keep things positive was relentless. At the Stubshaw Cross club, Labour activists and Cabinet ministers hung out drinking on the sunny terrace next to the car park — many of them angling for jobs. When the club’s owner held his wedding at the venue on a weekend during the campaign, Burnham went along. “We are literally telling doorknockers not to engage in anything that even borders on negativity,” said one person who worked on the campaign. “You’re not talking about the national picture.” That extended to excluding any mention of Starmer — the badges all said “Vote Andy.” Two allies of Burnham said there were no conversations at all between their team and Starmer’s during the campaign about the prime minister traveling up to appear with Burnham. It was simply obvious, they said, that neither side would want to do it. Likewise, Starmer and Burnham did not speak once on the phone for the entire by-election contest. The same two allies of Burnham said the last phone call was on the weekend before Labour selected Burnham as the candidate in Makerfield. One of those two people said Starmer raised concern on the call about the lines that would be taken during the campaign. The other person said it was an “awkward” and “difficult” conversation. Burnham avoided public rallies or joint appearances with cabinet ministers and prioritized one-to-one interactions, almost entirely on voters’ doorsteps. If someone was not at home, Burnham would jot down a handwritten message on a Post-It note and append it to the leaflet he pushed through the door. The script for doorstep activists was notable in its focus on Burnham personally, said a person who read it — including on difficult issues for the party. It said that he was one of the early politicians to call for action on the issue of gangs of men, many of British-Pakistani backgrounds, grooming and sexually abusing young women. It is a scandal that has troubled Labour for years, as critics accused a party that sought to be anti-racist of failing to get justice for the victims. Aides pointed him deliberately at undecided voters. One Tuesday night they invited 50 to the Stubshaw Cross club in an event that went on for three hours. By the end some were lining up for photos. Burnham has been talking to aides about holding town hall-style events like Tony Blair used to if he gets into No. 10, the second ally quoted earlier in this piece said. “It’s about getting that connection with real people,” they added. He is also thinking about spending part of the week out of London if he becomes PM, the same person said — a move that would align with his cheerleading for empowerment of cities and regions. Burnham’s status as challenger helped him with some voters who hate Westminster. “This is the first by-election in living memory when everyone is standing is an insurgent and no one is the incumbent,” an ally of Starmer said. Aides also did not need to waste any time raising his profile — he is well-known locally as mayor of Greater Manchester — instead they could concentrate on analyzing voter data. Labour campaigners had knocked on every door in the constituency five times over a week before polling day. Reform, meanwhile, was trying to stop the right-wing vote splitting between Farage’s party and Restore Britain, which is further to the right and was set up by former Reform politician Rupert Lowe. Reform strategists insisted Restore’s support was soft, attracting disengaged or non-voters who were open to flipping between one right-wing party and the other. One Reform strategist said last week that internal polling for the party had Restore on between 4 and 5 percent, much lower than others suggested. In the end, Restore won 7 percent. A second Reform strategist conceded that the party’s attack lines about national issues had less impact than they thought on the doorstep. Labour and Restore activists said they saw support move from Reform to Restore after Farage’s candidate, the local plumber Robert Kenyon, spent parts of a BBC Question Time special fending off complaints against sexist comments he made years ago on social media. The party’s performance will raise questions about any lessons for Farage, who was heavily involved behind the scenes. The party leader rang members of the campaign team regularly to get a feel for events on the ground, said the second strategist quoted above. Reform almost derailed the Question Time debate — the most high-profile moment of the campaign — by pushing to get a more high-ranking party figure onto the show instead of Kenyon, three people with knowledge of talks with the BBC said. The same people said Reform pushed for a national figure instead of the local candidate. Rival parties would have pulled out and the show could have been cancelled. In the end, Reform confirmed Kenyon would take part two days before the show. (Reform called the claims “utter nonsense” in a statement, but an official conceded a national figure had at one point been put forward.) Starmer’s survival playbook While Burnham smiled his way through the streets of Makerfield, Starmer’s battle for survival stepped up. The PM’s allies pushed their arguments against Burnham in parliament’s corridors and at Westminster summer parties. But there were moments of doubt. Two government allies of Starmer said his mindset appeared to oscillate in three distinct stages over the last month. First, the PM had an instinctive resistance to Burnham walking into the job. Then Starmer — a man who hates losing — saw the political reality that Burnham could oust him. But around two weeks ago Starmer hardened his resolve, making clear to all who would listen that he would stand in any contest and fight to remain in power. “He’s become more entrenched, more of the view that he can win and he should win, and of the view that we have achieved a lot and you don’t let somebody waltz in,” said one of these people. This same ally of Starmer quoted above said it essentially came down to a choice — either a Starmerite Cabinet minister would have to run a “kamikaze campaign to flush out Burnham’s policy agenda,” or Starmer would run himself and flush it out. In the end, this person said, the PM chose the latter. That person said there was a back-and-forth among some of the PM’s closest allies some weeks ago about whether to back such an alternative candidate — Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s name was among those raised, they said — before the same people came down in favor of the PM fighting to stay on. Two other allies of Starmer corroborated this account, with one saying “a lot of names” had come up in discussions but Starmer’s closest backers then decided to stick with him. Starmer allies have looked at membership polling and believe he could win a contest on a 10-point swing from Burnham — but the doubts are clear. One of Starmer’s most loyal Cabinet ministers, when asked if Starmer would fight on after the resignation by Healey, the defense secretary, sighed when asked about it by POLITICO: “It was a pretty brutal letter.” Starmer made it clear that he planned to fight last Monday, calling ministers into two meetings in the Cabinet room in 10 Downing Street. “It was just pretty sad,” said a Starmer-loyalist MP, who recalled junior ministers looking downward and avoiding eye contact. Several ministers said they still find it hard to believe he will actually battle on. Yet allies of the PM are now wheeling out the arguments to delay a contest — the main one being that Burnham should “own” the campaign for the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, which will now be triggered by him winning Makerfield and leaving his old job. A close ally of Starmer said Burnham should take up a formal role of “political lead” for the Greater Manchester mayoral contest. The strategy, said another Starmer-backing MP, is “to come out talking about the mayoralty and push [the by-election] back as much as we can.” Having more time would be helpful for wavering MPs too, they argued — it would give them time to “test” Burnham on policy. A government official allied to Starmer said the PM was attacked for walking in without a sufficient plan in 2024, and “that is exactly what Burnham is trying to do here, but on steroids.” Starmer allies argue that Burnham has the exact “Ming vase strategy” Starmer once had — saying little that will upset warring factions to preserve his popularity. Starmer allies were also “jubilantly” sharing a YouGov poll this week that suggested Burnham’s favorability rating among the general public had dropped to minus 11, said the MP quoted above: “It was probably the most forwarded message in that part of the Labour family.” Starmer has used recent weeks to unveil a flurry of policy moves designed to improve his public standing — including a planned ban on social media for children under 16. But some senior civil servants have raised the question of how the sitting prime minister fighting a party-political leadership battle would affect the government’s ability to roll out new policy. Cabinet Secretary Antonia Romeo, the head of the civil service, is looking at how she might advise civil servants on what to do in the event that there is a leadership contest, two people with knowledge of her thinking told POLITICO. They said that Romeo is privately exploring sending out similar advice to that sent out during the Conservative leadership election in 2022, when department chiefs were told: “It is important that we protect the impartiality of the civil service through this period, and ensure that public resources are not used to support leadership campaigns.” Now to make it work in Westminster It all sets the stage for a vicious summer in which, somehow, Burnham will have to maintain his outsider status. In doing so he will be up against a far deeper malaise in Britain. Not for nothing does Reform UK plan to keep using the same attack tactics for Burnham if he replaces Starmer. A senior party official said: “He’s like the PM — blowing in the wind. He doesn’t believe in anything. They’re basically the same person.” A half-hour walk from Labour’s campaign HQ in Makerfield is the Bryn Community Club. It was called the Bryn Labour Club for a century. Last year it changed its name because of the collapse in Labour’s working-class support; most members simply weren’t Labour any more. During this campaign, it played host to activists from the hard-right Restore Britain. “Everybody wants change now,” said the manager Lisa-Marie, who didn’t want to give her surname. Citing high taxes and immigration, she said: “We’re working-class people. When things go to shit, it’s us that feel it more than anybody. A lot of people round here are living paycheck to paycheck.” One person working on Burnham’s campaign put the political dilemma this way: “Whether they’re voting Restore or for Andy, their view of Westminster is the same.” Sam Blewett contributed reporting from Makerfield and London.
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